Super Tuesday was a trip back to the future. Everyone thought Bernie Sanders would would be the overwhelming favorite this morning for the Democratic nomination with a commanding lead in delegates after yesterday. Then people voted and showed they weren’t ready for a revolution. The theory that moderate Democrats had to unite around one candidate to stop Sanders proved true. After Joe Biden showed his muscle in South Carolina, Amy, Pete, and even Beto realized Democrats had to stop fighting each other to come together to first stop Bernie, then beat Trump. Elizabeth Warren is still hanging on with no chance of winning. She is probably helping Biden by taking votes away from Bernie. But eventually the money will dry up for her. Mike Bloomberg spent $500 million dollars to win American Samoa and a few delegates. He realized this morning that money couldn’t buy him love and he dropped out. He’s committed to beating Trump and his millions can help buy love for Democratic candidates around the country as he did in 2018.
Democratic voters realized the stakes are high. They turned out in record numbers. Nearly double the number of voters turned out in Virginia as compared to 2016. Biden won big. Big turnouts in Texas helped Biden with a must win big state. Amy Klobuchar’s endorsement helped Biden beat Sanders in Minnesota, a place he won in 2016. Fifty thousand more people in the state voted yesterday than in 2016. Even Utah, where Sanders won, had record turnout. The big divide between Biden and Sanders is the age of their supporters. Sanders does much better with voters under 45. Biden is the favorite of older voters. Polls show young voter turnout was down in North Carolina, Virginia, Tennessee, Vermont and Alabama. Sanders lost them all, except his home state of Vermont.
Between now and March 17th, we’ll know a lot more. States like Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Washington, Arizona, Florida, Illinois, and Ohio will hold primaries. The fear for Democrats is that neither Biden or Sanders will have enough delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot, resulting in a brokered convention with Super Delegates able to vote after the first ballot. No one in the party wants that. Democrats have to figure out a way to unite around the candidate who can beat Trump. Biden and Sanders both quote polls that show they can beat Trump. Moderates feel Sanders could lose big and cause damage down the ballot costing the party the House of Representatives and many state legislatures. Sanders supporters are convinced Biden just represents the past and the establishment and they want a radical change.
We all should remember Hillary Clinton beat Trump in the popular vote by almost three million votes last time. But her campaign made strategic mistakes that cost her electoral votes in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, and that was the ballgame. I don’t expect Biden to make that mistake. I am concerned about Biden on a debate stage with Trump. Biden has shown his age and his reaction and articulation get him into trouble. Trump is frighteningly dumb and inarticulate but he knows how to be bully and could overwhelm Biden with his own version of facts and reality.
We all have to remember this is a generational election. There are three white men in their 70s running for president. Even if Biden wins, there is a good chance he will not run for a second term when he will be almost 82 years old. Sanders will be 83. Vice presidential candidates usually don’t sway elections. But if Biden or Sanders wins the general election, the Democratic candidate would automatically become a serious candidate in four years. Both Biden or Sanders will have to pick a younger person of color who would share their vision for the future. These two lions are the last of their generation. The winner will set the Democratic Party on two very different courses. Democratic voters now have two clear choices. The wrong choice will haunt us all for a long time.
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